Sports Betting – betting strategies “Kelly Criterion”
In 1956, John Kelly has developed a financial strategy bets “Kelly Criterion”. Its essence lies in the fact that the size of your bet is established clearly in a certain percentage of the balance of the game. The main advantage when playing at the bookmaker for such a system is that it is practically impossible that even over a long time you will find yourself bankrupt. But the downside is the fact that should be very selective in terms of chances to guess the team and all with a high probability. And guess all outcomes should be no worse than the bookies themselves.
The amount of interest when using the strategy of “Kelly Criterion” is calculated as follows:
Set to start the pot, for example, $ 1,000. Next we define the chances of winning a particular command, such as 50%. This is your prediction for the match will be equal to 0.5. Coefficients on your chosen event will be equal to 3.0.
Initial pot: $ 1,000;
The coefficient for the match: 3.0;
Your prediction for the game: 0.5 (50 percent).
Prediction for the match in 0.5 multiplied by 3.0, and subtract 1.0 from the received and it is still 0.5. Then divide 0.5 to (4-1). Based on the fact that the initial bank have equal $ 1,000, the active match, we need to deliver 0.5 / 3 = 0.167, i.e. $ 167.
Another advantage in choosing this betting system is that while reducing your initial bank rate will also decrease, which would exclude the disappearance of the bank at all.
But this strategy is long-term rates in the bookmakers. That is, you will not be for a week, a month get more profit. We need much more time and most importantly, with your hand, guessing the correct cross-match.
As with any system, the Kelly Criterion, there are some nuances, are as follows:
- First you need to determine the initial bank. You can even take out the money that you took in the rates will be enough, and 10-15 per cent.
- Before you choose one or another match betting, it is necessary to carefully review and analyze all available information on this match. And for this very important experience, which the player takes on over time, making bets and selecting the event.
- In addition to choosing a particular match, you need to also find a higher rate of the outcome, but it needs to run all the bookmakers and choose the best result.
- You need to decide how long you will play on this system. Once you have won a sum of money being sought, it is necessary to take the money themselves, but do not just leave them on the balance sheet bookmaker, as in this case, they are not with you, and at the bookmaker and you need to bring them. Only then can we start all over again, playing Strategy “Kelly Criterion”.
The risk in this system is that it takes very correctly assess the chances of winning a particular event, as no proper assessment could lead to the loss of your bank. Besides underestimation of the probability of the outcome of the match will not tell you a profit and revaluation will lead to a greater loss of money from your account.
If you will bet with this strategy you can determine bets propoction. That is, we choose two events and determine which event to play better and more likely. That is, in the first event put 3%, but the probability of winning the second event will be much higher, we put him 7 percent. Deciding to put on two events in total $ 100, the first event put $ 30 on the second – 70.