Sport betting: Bookmaker’s predictions: should you trust them or not
Before making money on bets on sport, a bettor should get to know such an important detail as the right forecast on chosen event. Without it the bettor shouldn’t even start making bets on sports events or play the tote, the risk of losing money and getting into debt is very big.
Bookmaker companies don’t forgive mistakes, this business brings good income for a reason, and the fact that a great number of people making bets don’t have even the slightest idea of how a bookmaker’s line is made, don’t want to make even a primary analysis of the chosen bets, plays into the hands of bookmaker.
In making forecasts, bookmakers are divided into two types of companies:
- Bookmakers who make the line themselves, those are masters of gambling known all over the world (William Hill, ВЕТ 365, Ladbrokes, Pinnacle, Unibet etc.).
- Bookmakers who buy or just copy the line.
Companies, which make and forecast the line by themselves have at their disposal a big workforce of forecasters and analytics. They don’t get salary for reading coffee grounds. Authoritative bookmakers have real high-class experts in their staff, who know every sport well, who can evaluate precisely possibilities of one or another outcome in a certain sports event.
The expert sets odds for a chosen match proportionally. Guided by the selection of operational information both official and insider, the specialist makes a forecast based on the bookmaker’s margin and variability of outcomes. Such specialists have big salary and they are unlikely to sell secrets of future bets, so bettors mustn’t believe different offers with “secure bets” and “rigged games” in the Internet.
There are nuances in setting a line in minor championships. Information about second and third leagues is not so easy to find, sometimes bookmaker is guided by minimal selection of information of head-to-head battles or a place in tournament bracket. That’s why analytics of different bookmaker companies may set a line, which will differ in value for minor leagues and events. Accordingly, at that rate the bettor won’t have substantial advantage over bookmaker company.
Those bookmakers who copy the line of older fellow bookmakers in further movement of odds will fully base themselves upon changes, happening in companies of masters of betting. It’s the easiest way of leading a line, it is often used by regional bookmakers, who have just started to develop their business.
And now, the answer to the main question of the article – should you trust bookmaker’s forecasts? Clear answer to this question cannot be found, and all the components must be sorted through.
So, according to statistics, bookmaker companies are right in their forecasts for a match or a bout in 75% of cases. It’s a significant number, but is it enough for a bettor’s successful bets in the chosen bookmaker company? Definitely not. Basing his bets upon bookmaker’s forecasts, the bettor will lose all his bankroll very quickly, and in the end, he will be left with nothing. Because 25% – are sensations and unforeseen results, out of which bookmaker gets a significant part of his income.
Sensations are profitable for bookmakers and having understood all the intricacies of gambling in bookmaker companies, a bettor has to realize the most important step, which should be done from the very beginning – to analyze sports events by himself or using information from reliable sources.
Manipulations with odds in a line is usual practice for bookmakers. And it doesn’t matter, whether the company is globally renowned or not, nobody in betting is above such actions. Elementary odds overhanging before the match may be caused by the size of the sum of bets made by bettors on one of the outcomes, rather than insider information that an expert – analyst of bookmaker company could know; it is one of the simplest examples of the manipulations of the line.
And the alleged injuries, performance in not the first team, false information about the difficulties in the club financing – this is only the tip of the iceberg.
The most reliable forecast of the bettor will be his own match analysis, supported by statistics, information and intuition. The bookmaker company may give good odds, pay winnings in time, give bonuses, but to a large extent, it is done in order to put off the bettor’s guard and to leave him with nothing.